We’ll know by morning
Welp, the Scots are at it today. If you’re wondering why you haven’t seen much speculation yet, there’s a very tight embargo on election results until the whole vote is in. The announcement is expected in the morning, around 7:30 or before. That’s in the wee hours for most of my readership.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the No vote will win — not because I’m terribly confident, but because occasionally it’s fun to post something that will be definitively proven right or wrong within a few hours. It’s like playing Internet Pundit Chicken.
I base that on the fact No has been ahead all along, and still is. Just. Though Yes has had a tremendous last minute surge, it’s mostly among the yoot. And we know young people are excitable and love change but don’t turn up reliably at the ballot box. Still, they’re rounding people up and turning them out to vote, so I could have it wrong.
Had Scots politicians handled this better, they would end up in a stronger position, no matter how the vote turns out. Everyone in the UK is pissed off at Westminster and feels powerless, poorly represented and condescended to by that small bunch of snot-nosed mediocrities in government (of all parties). They could have capitalized on that and parted but stayed friends.
But no. Scots politicians are also snot-nosed mediocrities of the same general political class and they ran this thing on a lot of lefty anti-Tory bullshit and traditional bad feelings. If Scotland stays in the union, they may find Dave has promised them a whole bunch of stuff he can’t deliver, on account of all-around fuck-off-Scotty feelings in England (in fact, the one awesome silver lining is a tiny chance this referendum could ultimately topple Cameron).
If they opt out, things will get very chilly indeed. Lots of bruises and bad ideas. A commenter on Hot Air described this outcome as Venezuela with haggis.
Not too smug, though. The financial turbulence could be rough on the only constituency that matters — Badger House.
p.s. Re: the French caption. In the days of the guillotine, a favorite tattoo among French career criminals was a dotted line around the neck and “coupé ici”. I just. I dunno. Thought it was. Funny. I guess.
Posted: September 18th, 2014 under badger house, britain, personal, politics.
Comments: 11
Comments
Comment from Stark Dickflüssig
Time: September 18, 2014, 8:52 pm
Well, the Kingdom of Scotland always did have its problems.
But false Duessa now vntitled Queene,
Was brought to her sad doome, as here was to be seene.Strongly did Zele her haynous fact enforce,
And many other crimes of foule defame
Against her brought, to banish all remorse,
And aggrauate the horror of her blame.
And with him to make part against her, came
Many graue persons, that against her pled;
First was a sage old Syre, that had to name
The Kingdomes care, with a white siluer hed,
That many high regards and reasons gainst her red.Then gan Authority her to appose
With peremptorie powre, that made all mute;
And then the law of Nations gainst her rose,
And reasons brought, that no man could refute;
Next gan Religion gainst her to impute
High Gods beheast, and powre of holy lawes;
Then gan the Peoples cry and Commons sute,
Importune care of their owne publicke cause;
And lastly Iustice charged her with breach of lawes.
Comment from QuasiModo
Time: September 18, 2014, 10:52 pm
Being in Quebec and having seen these little Referendum dramas play out a few times, I would say it’s going to be ‘No’…it’s just theatre to blackmail more money out of the UK.
The problem with this game is that every time they play it, more business leaves the region and the more the parasite depends on the host.
The last time a Quebec premier made noises about another Referendum, she got booted out of office by a large margin (this past April)…socialists *are* capable of learning…it just takes them a long time (decades or generations even).
So I’ll go with SWeasel and call it for ‘No’.
Comment from Nina
Time: September 18, 2014, 10:55 pm
I’d be a lot more sympathetic if the Yes people weren’t going about with their NO MORE TORY RULE signs.
Comment from Uncle Al
Time: September 18, 2014, 11:46 pm
At least individual Scots can personally secede and become independent. What? You say that’s not allowed?
Pity.
Comment from mojo
Time: September 19, 2014, 1:08 am
Strike here, huh? I thought it was the Scots invasion route.
Comment from mojo
Time: September 19, 2014, 1:41 am
Synergy (and Chlamydia):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw9Evwb1vtQ
Comment from weaselwannabee
Time: September 19, 2014, 5:22 am
Tommy: Doesn’t it make you proud to be Scottish?
Mark “Rent-boy” Renton: It’s SHITE being Scottish! We’re the lowest of the low. The scum of the f-king Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just wankers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by wankers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete arseholes. It’s a SHITE state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and ALL the fresh air in the world won’t make any f-king difference!
Comment from tibby
Time: September 19, 2014, 2:22 pm
And – Internet Pundit Chicken wins! Weazle haz a smart!
Comment from Subotai Bahadur
Time: September 19, 2014, 8:07 pm
Something to watch for. From what I understand, in the original fight over whether to have a referendum; the SNP actually wanted three choices on the ballot. Status Quo, what was functionally Home Rule, and Independence. It was the three Westminster parties [Tory, Labor, Lib-Dem] who said that it would be either in or out. In a three way ballot, they probably would have gone for a form of Home Rule, which they did not want to grant and they gambled on the “No” vote.
In the last week of the campaign, the three Westminster parties panicked and promised Home Rule, the sun, the moon, the stars, a bundle of cash, and the right to pinch Kate’s bum if the Scots voted “No”. Which they have. Voted “No”, that is, not pinched Kate’s bum.
On the day of the vote, Members of Parliament were saying that those promises were wrong and would not be followed through on.
Imagine, the Brits lying to the Scots. Who’d a thunk such a thing was possible?
This renewed “Union” may not be off to a good start.
In actuality, Home Rule probably would be the best possible outcome. Imagine a Scots Parliament for local issues and government, an English Parliament for local issues and government, and a Welsh Parliament for local issues and government. And a British Parliament for national issues. Where have I heard of something like that before? Federal? Federal? That’s it Federalism. What we used to have. Something to represent local matters and act as an alternate center of power to the almighty centralized STATE.
We will see how good the words of Cameron and Milliband [the Lib-Dems having functionally collapsed] are. I’m pretty sure they were lying deliberately and that this issue is not done.
Subotai Bahadur
Comment from S. Weasel
Time: September 19, 2014, 8:30 pm
Well, in last minute panic, Cameron promised to cede a lot of power to the Scottish parliament. Also, money. He’ll probably get the first, he may not get the second.
And now the English are clamoring for their own local parliament (which they haven’t got).
Comment from Buffalo Jones
Time: September 21, 2014, 7:12 pm
Romanum Undique Opugnarium!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz3OKvt1f78
Continuate!
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