As happy as a moron with two dicks…
Damn, I’d love to be there for this election night, but I’ll be tucked up in my weaselly bed dreaming my weaselly dreams by the time the polls close and the results trickle in.
But I want to be a part, so let’s have ourselves a Guess-The-Magnitude contest. The winner gets a double dose of Aunty’s Spotted Dick!
1. I want two numbers from you: the number of Republicans you think will be in the House, and the number of Republicans you think will be in the Senate when the dust settles. The difference between your choice and the reality, added together, is your final score. Lowest number wins.
2. Several different House/Senate combinations could result in the same ultimate score. If that happens, the earliest timestamp gets the dicks (and the others will get a cheaper-to-mail consolation prize that I will pull out of my ass as necessary).
3. Check the thread yourself if you want to avoid having an exact duplicate of someone else’s pick. I’m far too lazy to do it for you.
4. Contest stays open until we have a firm preliminary count. I’ll say when. In the event of contested races, we could be here for quite a spell before the absolute, final numbers and a winner is declared.
5. If you want your prize, you’ll have to entrust me with a snail-mail address. Dicks travel by slow boat and take months to arrive.
Some reminders: all 435 seats in the House are up for renewal, but the guesstimate I’ve read for the absolute maximum that could change hands is 100. Currently, there are 178 Republicans, so the min/max is 178/278. [Update: in the comments, RedHatRob says he thinks the upper limit is WAY over 100. He’s tracking 151 D seats]
In the Senate, 36 are up for re-election, but only 10 are really in play. Number of Republicans in the Senate: 41. Min/max is 41/51. [APOSEC72 sees 52 in play]
I’m sure I’ll amend this post several times as people point out flaws in my methods or my math. I’ve never run this kind of pool before.
Good luck, AND FOR GOD’S SAKE VOTE OR I’LL CHEW OPEN A VEIN. Preferably yours.
Time! No more entries, please. As soon as I beat back this hangover, I’ll assess the state of play.
November 2, 2010 — 12:00 pm
Comments: 80