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The natives are getting restless

My employer’s Board of Directors met by Zoom today. They are all squarely in the danger zone for various reasons, and they have taken the lockdown very seriously. It surprised me, actually – I thought one or two would be stubborn old coots.

But I get the definite sense they’ve had enough. Our crisis never materialized. We peaked around April 20 (around 5,000 a day) and are now down to a daily case number of around 600, which is comparable to March 20, when the lockdown began.

Wait’ll people get a taste of how uncomfortable the masks are…


Comment from God’s middle finger
Time: July 20, 2020, 8:18 pm

C’mon Britain…. rise up!

Comment from Skandia Recluse
Time: July 20, 2020, 8:35 pm

I suspect the mask will be with us always. What ‘we’ (on the other side of this issue) need is an awareness ribbon, or maybe a Brassard to wear on your arm. I want one that says ‘Recall Whitmer.’

We could then wear the mask but signify that we are on the other side by wearing the Brassard.

Comment from durnedyankee
Time: July 20, 2020, 9:23 pm

So now we’re ALL Scaramouche!

that’s okay, we’ll just let that pressure continue to build since they think they can tie down the pressure relief valve without any consequences.

Comment from BJM
Time: July 20, 2020, 11:52 pm

@Durned: Let me go! Let me go!

Comment from Uncle Al
Time: July 21, 2020, 12:27 pm

We…are now down to a daily case number of around 600…

And that number is likely inflated. If the NHS (I assume it’s the NHS reporting these numbers) is acting similarly to the CDC here in the US, then the stats reflect a fair number of “cases” that a reasonable person would not include. We’ve seen a man killed in a motorcycle crash counted as a Wuhan death because he tested positive.

And those tests…! The method used is typically a form of PCR, and analysis of results suggest that about 30% are false positives and 20% false negatives.

Yes, a growing number are getting fed up; good and angry.

Comment from durnedyankee
Time: July 21, 2020, 1:27 pm

Jo-Anne’s fabrics has some very nice ‘masks’ intended for use at something akin to the masked balls, which you can glitter and paint and fancy up yourself with all kinds of feathery doo-dads and gewgaws.

They also had a couple full face – mannikin style – that look like some robot from an anime, in plain white.

I was sorely tempted to buy one of the full face ones, perhaps paint it up (cultural appropriation warning) as a Maori face tattoo, or a walking dead character.


But now the Daily Fail informs me that Prez Trump says wearing as mask is “patriotic”.


@Uncle-Al – yes, the reason they wanted so badly to get testing for everyone is so they could use THAT number to beat us over the head with.

Comment from dissent555
Time: July 21, 2020, 4:03 pm

So how was Flying Ant Day? Heard the swarms were huge.

Comment from Some Vegetable
Time: July 21, 2020, 5:16 pm

First Goya… and now Red Bull. I don’t even like the stuff, but now I have to go buy some, just on principle. I DO like my Goya beans though. Recommended.

Anyhow, there’s some flickers of hope out there.


Comment from S. Weasel
Time: July 21, 2020, 6:18 pm

Visible from space, dissent555, but I didn’t see any. I can only recall seeing them one year since I’ve been here and it wasn’t terribly spectacular.

Twice. I’ve just looked it up on the blog and I posted about it in 2018 and 2019, but it’s giving me a weird message on the link and I’m too lazy to find out why.

Comment from Deborah HH
Time: July 21, 2020, 6:30 pm

The only Goya products I presently buy are olive oil and olives. As in Martini Olives 🙂 They are huge, and tasty. I’m not drinking alcohol yet, but I’m eating those olives anyway.

Comment from Drew458
Time: July 21, 2020, 9:42 pm

Uncle Al – thanks for that. Sorry for the long winded response but it’s important.

I found the article and read the original “30/20” paper. Other doctors have been tossing around the “70% accurate” number for awhile now, which kind of amounts to the same thing.

What the news is NOT saying is that this means that the number of infected people is MUCH higher than the testing shows. I looked at the numbers for USA and NJ, and both are testing under 10% positive. But don’t think that false positives and false negatives are mutually exclusive: you get both from a big enough sample.

I ran the numbers. If current testing shows a 10% positive rate, then it also shows a 90% negative rate. Test 1000 people, get back 100 positives and 900 negatives. Now take away 30% of those 100 (net 70) but add in 20% of those 900 (net 180). This gives you 100-30+180=250 cases, 2.5X more than you thought you had. At 9% it’s worse, 2.7X. 8% gives you 3X. It’s not until the tests come back 40% positive and 60% negative that it balances out to the original results. ( FL has only been reporting the positives AFAIK, not getting 100% positive results and 0% negative results).

So this is bad. But it’s also good, because the number of hospitalizations, ICU cases, intubations has NOT changed. Nor has the death count, whatever fuzzy method is being used to come up with that. Which means … a lot more people are infected, but the fatality rate is MUCH lower than reported.

Example time!

NJ is showing a 7.76% death rate, which I feel is wildly inflated. They also show a 9.75% test positive rate. But they rely on this flawed PCR test. Let’s use the 10% factor which is close enough. Reduce that rate by 2.5X and the death rate is now 3.1%. Which is bad enough. The infection rate jumps by the same factor, giving NJ a hair under a 5% rate for the entire population in the state.

For the USA, CDC today shows 3.6% death rate. But their tested page shows higher numbers of infected than the infected number on their death page. Ok, use both. 9% positive according to them. If the PCR test is as flawed as this report says, then the error factor is 2.7X and the total number of infected is not 4.3 million but 11.9 million, and the death % is not 3.7% but 1.4%.

So this is a mess. Deliberate or not, using a seriously flawed test as the world standard messes up all the counts by a huge amount.

Comment from Uncle Al
Time: July 22, 2020, 12:56 am

@Drew458 — And thank you back. Excellent commentary / analysis.

TPTB are cooking the Wuhan books because they want us to believe we’re really screwed. The sad fact that they’re getting away with it means we ARE really screwed, but screwed differently. I think this may be the first time this month we can use the word “ironic” correctly.

Comment from BJM
Time: July 25, 2020, 11:41 pm

No Queen fans, eh?

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