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Today’s poll results. Reform has already pulled within two points of the Tories, which is remarkable so soon after Farage’s announcement. Extraordinary show of irritation with the ruling party.

Tory candidates have been pushing hard on “a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour” but the math doesn’t work. Even if every Reform voter threw their vote to the Tories they’d still be losing by four. Many voters will think this is an opportunity to spank the Conservatives, who are going to lose anyway.

If Farage hammers the illegal immigration angle, it will pull in some Labour voters. One or two defections to Reform from actually conservative Conservatives and…very interesting indeed.

Probably not going to happen, but a weasel can dream.

June 5, 2024 — 6:45 pm
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