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As happy as a moron with two dicks…

Damn, I’d love to be there for this election night, but I’ll be tucked up in my weaselly bed dreaming my weaselly dreams by the time the polls close and the results trickle in.

But I want to be a part, so let’s have ourselves a Guess-The-Magnitude contest. The winner gets a double dose of Aunty’s Spotted Dick!

1. I want two numbers from you: the number of Republicans you think will be in the House, and the number of Republicans you think will be in the Senate when the dust settles. The difference between your choice and the reality, added together, is your final score. Lowest number wins.

2. Several different House/Senate combinations could result in the same ultimate score. If that happens, the earliest timestamp gets the dicks (and the others will get a cheaper-to-mail consolation prize that I will pull out of my ass as necessary).

3. Check the thread yourself if you want to avoid having an exact duplicate of someone else’s pick. I’m far too lazy to do it for you.

4. Contest stays open until we have a firm preliminary count. I’ll say when. In the event of contested races, we could be here for quite a spell before the absolute, final numbers and a winner is declared.

5. If you want your prize, you’ll have to entrust me with a snail-mail address. Dicks travel by slow boat and take months to arrive.

Some reminders: all 435 seats in the House are up for renewal, but the guesstimate I’ve read for the absolute maximum that could change hands is 100. Currently, there are 178 Republicans, so the min/max is 178/278. [Update: in the comments, RedHatRob says he thinks the upper limit is WAY over 100. He’s tracking 151 D seats]

In the Senate, 36 are up for re-election, but only 10 are really in play. Number of Republicans in the Senate: 41. Min/max is 41/51. [APOSEC72 sees 52 in play]

I’m sure I’ll amend this post several times as people point out flaws in my methods or my math. I’ve never run this kind of pool before.

Good luck, AND FOR GOD’S SAKE VOTE OR I’LL CHEW OPEN A VEIN. Preferably yours.

Time! No more entries, please. As soon as I beat back this hangover, I’ll assess the state of play.


Comment from Mark
Time: November 2, 2010, 12:18 pm

Does John McCain count as a Republican? Olympia Snowe? Susan Collins? Lindsey Graham? Or did you mean REAL Republicans?

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 12:32 pm

For contest purposes, they all count. Philosophically…we’ll have to see if this election puts the fear of god in ’em.

Comment from Mark
Time: November 2, 2010, 12:33 pm

If Lisa Murkowski wins as a result of the criminal actions of Alaskan elections officials and collusion from the Media, does she count as Republican even though she’s running as an Independent and will vote like the 4 listed above?

And along the lines of criminal activity, I see that the DoJ is sending election observers to Arizona. I have high hopes that MANY of them will end up in Arizona jails where they belong.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 12:40 pm

Ha! Are you the officer in charge of Mellow Harshing today, Mark?

Relax, enjoy the wave.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 12:46 pm

Heh. Find your fucking polling place.

Comment from Some Vegetable
Time: November 2, 2010, 12:49 pm

House – Republicans end up with 240 seats
Senate – Republicans end up with 47 seats

Special Bonus bet – Harry Reid goes down to defeat in a recount election, after more voting machine fraud is uncovered!

Off to buy my popcorn!( I already have the beer) πŸ™‚ Oh, and I have a slurpee too!

Comment from Mark
Time: November 2, 2010, 12:49 pm

Just trying to help you find the rough spots before someone puts up their numbers and then screams because you didn’t clearly lay out the rules. And I haven’t even asked if the winner is decided as soon as the first count of the votes is complete, or if it is held off until all inevitable legal complaints (based on election fraud which has already been evident as well as previous Dem tactics to fraudulently “win” an election by “finding” “uncounted” ballots) are resolved…

Comment from harrison
Time: November 2, 2010, 12:51 pm

House – 266
Senate – 55
Bring on the dick.

Comment from Pavel
Time: November 2, 2010, 1:00 pm

245 + 50.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 1:03 pm

Ah, I see, Mark. No, I think I’ll close the contest when the legal wrangling begins (wouldn’t want heaps of people guessing at that point, when it’s close), but I won’t declare a winner until all the challenges have been resolved.

So, you know, I won’t buy the dick in advance. In case it goes off.

Comment from Mark
Time: November 2, 2010, 1:22 pm

That should be good enough to keep most of the crowd from trying to weasel out…

Comment from Ric Locke
Time: November 2, 2010, 1:24 pm



Comment from RedHatRob
Time: November 2, 2010, 1:34 pm

I think the upper limit is actually way OVER 100. I’m actually tracking 151 D seats (out of 257 current D seats) that could change hands.

I’m going big (mass extinction event):
House: R299/136D
Senate: R51/49D

So: 299+51

(btw- Nashville misses you!)

Comment from Wiccapundit
Time: November 2, 2010, 1:43 pm

238 elephants in the House
50 pachyderms in the Senate
GOP gets 69


(although in my heart of hearts I feel [urgently wish] that the total pickup approaches 100)

Comment from APOSEC72
Time: November 2, 2010, 1:52 pm

I think your maximums are wrong.

I think we end up with 265 in the House.
I think in the Senate the GOP takes PA, ND, WV, AR, FL, WI, CO, and IL, as well as CT, NV, and WA. Folks, that makes 52.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 1:57 pm

I’ll amen the post to reflect that, RedHatRob.

And don’t remind me. I’m WAY overdue to go visit my dad in Nashville. I’ve been putting it off until I get my driver’s license. Also, the money. And the nine-hour plane flight.

Comment from APOSEC72
Time: November 2, 2010, 1:59 pm

House: 265.
Senate: 52. More races than you think.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 2:06 pm

Sorry about the trip to the spam filter, Aposec. It’s a little overeager sometimes.

I’ll amend again.

Comment from EZnSF
Time: November 2, 2010, 2:16 pm

251 House
47 Senate
35 GOP Governors
Cal Prop 19 FAIL

Bonus: Obama gets something organic and nasty thrown at him while in Indonesia next week.

Comment from Allen
Time: November 2, 2010, 3:01 pm

My pick: 47 in the Senate, 227 in the House.

Comment from Mysterion
Time: November 2, 2010, 3:39 pm

I’ve learned to not trust my instincts, and I haven’t studied this by individual race anyway, so I will go with numbers others have predicted. There will 248 Republicans in the House and 50 in the Senate.

Comment from scubafreak
Time: November 2, 2010, 3:42 pm

My guess would be adding 47 in the house, and a 50-50 split in the Senate.

Ironically, Obamadinijad came out this morning telling the GOP that he expected them to act in ‘a spirit of open bipartisanship’ during the next congress.

So much for the GOP being in the back of the bus….. πŸ˜‰

Comment from Andy
Time: November 2, 2010, 4:42 pm

House: 246
Senate: 48

Comment from steve
Time: November 2, 2010, 4:46 pm

Of 435 seats in the House:
Repubs gain 114 to yield 292.

Of 100 seats in the Senate:
Repubs gain 10 to yield 51.

Total to beat:

Comment from Kerry the Label Guy
Time: November 2, 2010, 4:52 pm

House 264
Senate 51

Pelosi hit by truck.

Nobody ever sees Reid again (except Jimmy Hoffa).

Bearded marxist’s beard catches fire.

Comment from SCOTTtheBADGER
Time: November 2, 2010, 4:56 pm

The Badger parked his truck at the Police Station at the end of the night shift at 0700 CDT, walked up two flights, into City Hall, took the elevator up four more, AND VOTED! A straight Republican vote!

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 5:07 pm

Just bought some nice beer and stuff for sammiches. May try to stay up and see the first returns roll in.

If the polls close at 9 on the East Coast, that’s 2am my time. We stay up later than that most nights, so it’s not much of a stretch.

Comment from EZnSF
Time: November 2, 2010, 5:29 pm

Beer and hot-wings (homemade by the way)
Took the day off, party starts at 4:00pm PST

Just got my cheat sheet worked out. 24 Propositions, state and local! Yikes
Off to vote, then the beer-run.

Comment from David Gillies
Time: November 2, 2010, 6:28 pm

House: 246 R/189 D
Senate: 49 R/51 D
them’s what the numbers (and Monte Carlo, and my hunch/WAG*) sez

32 Governors’ seats into the bargain (and since Governors means districting, this is big – game-changing big – for 2012)

* that’s Wild-Ass Guess, not Cheryl Cole or Colleen Rooney, BTW (and sadly)

Comment from Scubafreak
Time: November 2, 2010, 6:28 pm

FUCKERS!!!!!!!! They moved my polling place without telling ANYONE!!!! NOONE could give good directions to where to go, it took me over an HOUR to find it. The Poll Judges told me that they had been recieving a MASSIVE number of complaints from people who vote there!!!

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 6:58 pm

Geez, Scoob — someone should look into that.

I always had to vote in the city’s roughest housing project. Oof.

Comment from mongo
Time: November 2, 2010, 7:29 pm

House – 257
Senate – 49

I closed my eyes and poked at some numbers.

While I’m at it, I say PawPaw Favre will NOT stop playing football and Moss will go anywhere but St. Louis (IhopeIhopeIhope) although my husband is all level headed saying we could use him here, as if the ego-maniac would even phone it in and play. Sheesh.

Comment from Mark
Time: November 2, 2010, 7:36 pm

Hey, mongo – maybe they can get him and Terrell on the same team. Just add Deion and you gots the Three (narcissistic) Stooges…

Comment from Scott Jacobs
Time: November 2, 2010, 8:13 pm

House 247

Senate 50

Comment from Monotone The Elderish
Time: November 2, 2010, 8:50 pm

House 243
Senate 48

Comment from Poindexter
Time: November 2, 2010, 8:58 pm

I’ve already posted my predictions elsewhere, but here they are:

House: 253

Senate: 51

Bonus toss-up: Tancredo wins the governorship here in Colorado.

Of course, that last number doesn’t count those who at some point after the election will either flip parties (in the House) or choose to caucus with the Republicans (in the Senate). And I voted two weeks ago.


Comment from Nina
Time: November 2, 2010, 9:03 pm

The house’ll pick up 77, the senate 13.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 9:06 pm

Heyyyyy, Nina! How you be? Sucked into Scrabb.ly yet?

Comment from Armybrat
Time: November 2, 2010, 9:32 pm


Bonus= bawney going down in flames (all puns intended)

Comment from David Gillies
Time: November 2, 2010, 9:39 pm

I have a mental image of Nancy Pelosi’s feet sticking out from under a Kansas farmhouse.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 9:43 pm

We’re listening to Howie Carr online (streaming here). He’s broadcasting until 9EST tonight, special election coverage.

Uncle B is *cracking up* at the accents. And the placenames.

Comment from Scubafreak
Time: November 2, 2010, 10:08 pm

LOL… Pelosi just came out crowing that the Dems were on track to hold virtually every contested seat…. πŸ˜‰

I hearby propose a consolation prize contest for the person who creates the best P-Shop combining Pelosi with Baghdad’s own Comical Ali……

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 10:29 pm

The NY Times interactive election map is the BEST.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 2, 2010, 10:33 pm

Spam in from Royalty Bowcutt and Witherington Codeluppi. Huh.

Comment from David Gillies
Time: November 2, 2010, 11:00 pm

Did you see the hilarious ambush video (over on Ace’s blog) of the guy asking the sooper-smart attendees at the Jon Stewart Smugfest if they thought Obama was a Keynesian? Remember, all these people think you’re a knuckle-dragging caveman for not wanting to polish Barack’s knob.

The correct answer, of course, is that the question is moot: Obama lacks a sufficiently coherent political philosophy to notice if Frederic Bastiat himself were to crawl up his rectum and goose his prostate.

Comment from Uncle Badger
Time: November 2, 2010, 11:30 pm

Ackshly, it’s not so much the accents, but the place names that are a hoot. It’s like someone took a bag of British town names, jumbled them all in a bag and pulled them out at random.

Think how San Francisco being ten miles away from Boston, 15 miles from Anchorage and just down the road from Washington would sound to you πŸ˜‰

It’s rather sweet – hands across the pond and all that.

Deep irony about the online feed, though. There’s Carr and his callers fighting the good fight, while almost every ad is from government doing precisely what the broadcasters say it shouldn’t be doing (‘nag nag nag – do this, think that).

Just like here, in fact.

Oh.. and when you lot have finished with your Tea Party. may we borrow the leftover posters and placards, please? Lots of us over here are filled with admiration.

Comment from Scubafreak
Time: November 2, 2010, 11:37 pm



And, Quite Prophetically, SPIKED SLURPIES ARE INCLUDED!!

Comment from Spad13
Time: November 2, 2010, 11:39 pm

267 house 50 senate

Comment from David Gillies
Time: November 2, 2010, 11:55 pm

All of this reminds me of the time I had a one-night stand with this blonde, corn-fed gal named Hillary, dressed like a Colorado Potato Beetle, after the 1978 Democratic National Convention.

Comment from Allen
Time: November 3, 2010, 12:04 am

Uncle B., if I might. Maybe you should call it the “Battle for Britain.”

A few slogans off hand:

“We drove off the first blitz from the Continent, we can do it again.”

“It only takes a few to win the day.”

“We rule Britain, not Brussels.”

Comment from David Gillies
Time: November 3, 2010, 12:44 am

OK, who wants to bet the GOP completely blows it by thinking this is a re-validation of the awful centrist Bush-era tax-and-spend fiscal expansionism, rather than a stone-cold rejection of the vile socialist nonsense that Obama and his posse of cretins have foisted upon us? If there exists a body of people who, when proffered a stick, can be more reliably predicted to grasp the wrong end, I cannot think what it might be.

Comment from Armybrat
Time: November 3, 2010, 1:10 am

David, there’s a real fear that Steele et al. still don’t get that this isn’t anti-democrap. This is return America to it’s conservative roots with rights endowed by the Creator. But note that we have another election coming in 2012. We’re just starting to clean house here. The fucking GOP had better figure that out or we’ll consign them to the dustbin of history.

Comment from Uncle Badger
Time: November 3, 2010, 1:11 am

DG – sounds like the UK under that moron Cameron and his cohort of ‘not really The Conservative Party’ supporters.

They chose to interpret a lukewarm win as a vote for more of the same. Had they actually stood for something there’d have been a landslide.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 3, 2010, 1:45 am

YES!!! Looks like there’s a South Park marathon on the Viva channel.

Whatever the hell that is…

Comment from David Gillies
Time: November 3, 2010, 1:48 am

Jesus H Christ Uncle B, don’t I just know it. Faint heart never fucked a pig, as they say. Now we have that cunt Vince Cable with his hands on (or near) the levers of power rather than drooling away in some nursing home in Frinton where he belongs.

Comment from Monotone The Elderish
Time: November 3, 2010, 1:59 am

@david, Who the hell said THAT?

Comment from David Gillies
Time: November 3, 2010, 2:05 am

Monotone: guess you never hung out with anyone who was UK Armed Forces (serving or emeritus.) When it comes to hair-raisingly obscene turns of phrase, they’re a one-stop shop.

Comment from Scubafreak
Time: November 3, 2010, 2:16 am

DG, did you ever serve on the USS Lampon with Capt Whitey Mack? That was supposed to be his favorite expression….

Stoatie – Let me know if they show the ‘COON AND FRIENDS’ episode….

Comment from Scubafreak
Time: November 3, 2010, 2:21 am

Sorry, that’s Lapon, not Lampon…..

Comment from David Gillies
Time: November 3, 2010, 2:47 am

Nah, Scuba, I’m a big old pussy civilian, and a Brit, but it’s a not-uncommon scrap of vernacular amongst Limeys that are in the shooting wogs business. Currently my linkage to the wizz-bang-shoot portion of Britain’s foreign policy is via a startlingly well-bred and attractive young lady who would be shocked to the marrow I shared such anecdotes with you. I doubt she even knows what the more unpleasant words mean.

Comment from Anonymous
Time: November 3, 2010, 2:53 am

I just love refreshing that NYT interactive map and seeing the Republican numbers go up and the Democratic numbers fall. Loooove it.

Comment from EZnSF
Time: November 3, 2010, 3:56 am

Hey Weezy, forgot to tell you. I bought two sheets of your ‘melted obama logo’ stickers from zazzle a couple of months ago. I’ve been pasting them in conspicuous places throughout my city.

I’ve been posting them where nefarious varieties of liberals *spit* work and transit.

And it’s NOT vandalism. In my city, it’s called ‘urban art’!

You’ll be FAMOUS!

Comment from Noah Bawdy
Time: November 3, 2010, 9:19 am

2010 Stopped the bleeding.
2012 Starts the healing and repealing.

Comment from David Gillies
Time: November 3, 2010, 11:29 am

There is no cause for congratulation in any of tonight’s results. Once again, you vast collection of DICKHEADS have failed to humble your foe.

Murky won
Harry Reid won

You should all be ashamed of yourselves.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 3, 2010, 11:42 am

I must say, for a resounding victory, it certainly feels like something else entirely. All the close races I cared about seem to’ve broken the wrong way.

On the other hand, I really am (inexplicably) rather hungover.

Comment from J2
Time: November 3, 2010, 12:21 pm

i second that S.W.
wtf happened in NY, CT, CA, MA and even NV…. i thought that we would pull at least a couple of the real symbolic ones…

there are some real bright spots tho:
Allen West is awesome-
Grayson (that loathsome buffoon)is gone

and of course Rubio.
and my personal campaign efforts against arcuri in NY-24 were not in vain— if I may:
a hearty Fuck Off you slimy turd….

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 3, 2010, 12:55 pm

On examination, it looks like a hell of a wave. But. Meh.

Comment from BigBlueBug
Time: November 3, 2010, 1:00 pm

Goobner Lincoln fucking Chaffee.

At least the “change the name of the state” crap didn’t pass but still, Lincoln Chaffeeeeeee.

At least his coffin tax will pull little rhody out of its
financial woes.

Ativan is my only friend.

Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 3, 2010, 1:05 pm

Chafee. Ugh. I got taunted into voting for that emeffer once, before he lost and switched parties.

I seriously think there’s something seriously wrong with that man. Seriously.

Comment from Some Vegetable
Time: November 3, 2010, 1:12 pm

Well, the Democrats weren’t destroyed, but they were seriously wounded, and -hopefully- scared within an inch of their lives. I think that the Obama agenda is effectively dead, and that there’s even some chance that parts of it will be reversed. I’d say that, almost certainly, the Bush tax cuts will come back, and that Cap and Trade is well and truely dead.

The next two years are going to be dangerous ones for everyone in Congress, as the public has tasted its power sufficiently that 2012 is going to be on helluva election. Incumbents of both parties must be feeling like the French aristocracy in 1789. Hopefully this will focus their minds on what the public wants. I believ that isn’t pork this season, it’s tax cuts.

As for Obama, he may actually like this. He’d been reduced to blaming Bush for every hangnail, and that act was worn out. Further, he had to be careful (or should have been careful) in what he promised as he faced the danger of having to explain why he hadn’t kept his promises (Guantanamo Bay, anyone?).

Now that he has the Republican Congress opposing him , he can be more free about promising unicorn-fur sweaters for the poor, since he has someone to blame when they don’t arrive. I therefore predict that the 2012 campaign promises start with his speech this afternoon.

Comment from BigBlueBug
Time: November 3, 2010, 1:24 pm

I voted for the rat bastard once as well. Should have cut my thumb off Yakuza style but I needed it at the time.

Linc has crazy eyes, seriously. And a disassociation from reality that is really creepy.

I’m crazy and creepy but the dude gives me the Willis.


Comment from S. Weasel
Time: November 3, 2010, 2:25 pm

Ugh. My mouth tastes like I’ve been sucking a mouse.

Comment from JohnSF
Time: November 3, 2010, 2:48 pm

Normal for weasels, surely? πŸ™‚

Comment from SCOTTtheBADGER
Time: November 3, 2010, 4:18 pm

Darn, the Dems defeat wasn’t enough to win the Death Pool.

Comment from Gromulin
Time: November 3, 2010, 4:42 pm

My fellow Californians,
Jerry fucking Brown? Gavin fucking Newsom? The males in my family have a gift for foul language…but right now it just escapes me. There is not language foul enough to describe my feelings towards the urban hipster douchbags, welfare leeches, Union slugs and other assorted leftists that have just sealed the fate of this once great, and my native, state. God help us.

Comment from Scubafreak
Time: November 3, 2010, 6:46 pm

Grom, I think you can chalk that up to the Illegal Alien vote, and the Graveyard vote (those dead voters are such saps for Keynisian politics…..)

Comment from Allen
Time: November 3, 2010, 6:52 pm

What I don’t understand is how people can vote for Jerry Brown and not vote for legal weed. Hey, let’s start the California jokes.

How many Californians does it take to screw in a light bulb?
None, we’re getting rid of electricity, so who needs a frickin’ light bulb.

How many Californians…

Jeebus, Jerry Brown is going to be our Governor. The Golden State, sure, that’s because most of the voters just urinated on themselves.

Jerry Frickin’ Brown. I can haz Gin and Tonic? Now, please?

Comment from Gromulin
Time: November 3, 2010, 7:29 pm

I was pretty much stoned 24/7 last time Jerry was Governor…find myself wishing I had that option legally now. Shit, who am I kidding…there not enoght pot in CA to make the next 4 years palatable.

Comment from Scubafreak
Time: November 3, 2010, 9:13 pm

Grom, you’ll need to either move North or East to avoid the next 4 years of smug alerts. Hopefully, by the next election, San Francisco will have completely disappeared up it’s own asshole….

(I love South Park references, they ALWAYS have something that applies to the situation at hand…)

Comment from Nina
Time: November 3, 2010, 9:18 pm

California is doomed…but then again, I’m in one o’ them public unions so it’ll be all right for me, right?


Okay, back to doomed. πŸ™

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